What will NOT happen in 4G world in 2011

What will NOT happen in 4G world in 2011: Prediction ain’t easy. But that doesn’t stop many would-be pundits from trying to read the 2011 tea leaves, with sometimes hilarious results.

The antidote? ABI Research’s annual take on what’s NOT going to happen next year in many of the markets.

Let's see a few of them.

The ITU still WON’T have the right to define 4G in 2011

The ITU has caused confusion in the industry to the point where some people really believe that the ITU defines 4G. But 4G is not a specification or a standard. It merely is shorthand for fourth generation mobile wireless technology.

In fact, the ITU does not create or define WiMAX or LTE either. The ITU sets criteria for existing and proposed technologies to meet – including speed and latency – so it can group them together with specific spectrum bands.

This allows technologies to achieve better economies of scale and allows for easier roaming between countries. 802.16m and LTE-Advanced meet the ITU’s criteria to be designated IMT-Advanced. But IMT-Advanced does not equal 4G. WiMAX and LTE, which are forward-compatible with 802.16m and LTE-Advanced, respectively, are 4G technologies.

The ITU does not control the term 4G today, and ABI Research believes it still won’t control the term next year.

LTE will NOT be massively deployed

With LTE commercialized in Sweden, Norway, Poland and the United States, and by NTT DoCoMo just before Christmas 2010, expectations have been heightened for the widespread and rapid adoption of LTE. Certainly, momentum is picking up, but we should show some caution.

Spectrum and licenses are not yet readily available in most countries. A case in point: the UK’s spectrum auction will only take place in 2012: an irony for a country in the forefront of technology. Furthermore a number of developing markets in the Asia-Pacific region are still trying to settle in 3G services, such as China and India. Some others, such as Thailand, have yet to issue 3G licenses.

There are definitely growing numbers of LTE trials announced around the world, especially in countries with mature telecoms markets. However, it will more likely be 2012 and 2013 before we see substantial licensing of LTE spectrum.

While it is true that major operators will be making some large footprints of LTE operational to some degree, it could be years before it really becomes ubiquitous. If we cast our minds back to the rollout of WCDMA it took over a decade to get where we are now.

The modern environment has several competing services for wireless data that range from GPRS to WiMAX. While it is certainly true that lower speed air interfaces are a different kettle of fish they do compete for wireless data subscribers and are doing quite well especially in the developing world where the lowly GPRS and EDGE have been transformational in areas that barely had telephone service.

In addition, discussions with component suppliers about “how their LTE business is going” usually bring chuckles if not outright laughter. As the old lady said in the 1980’s TV commercial for hamburgers, “where’s the beef?”